Friday, September 30, 2016

Nvidia video and No-Hands Shuttle in California

I can't help but post the new Nvidia AI video. The video demonstrates how riding about in New Jersey would be much less stressful when one does not have to drive. There's been lots of articles about Nvidia's progress, but this captures the company's technology perfectly. (Here's an article with details about the upgraded technology.)


Okay, we can't be far from driverless production and widespread use if we can give up driving on the New Jersey Turnpike. That has to be one of mankind's least favorite chores.

Legislation passes for one shuttle

Gov. Jerry Brown just signed legislation in California to allow a driverless shuttle to operate on a pilot basis in the Bishop Ranch business park and when crossing a public road. This is part of the GoMentum Station work. (More on the legislation from a previous post.) EasyMile is providing the vehicles.

Car Makers Plans and Business Models

Just a round up today because I'm super busy.

Volvo

Volvo announcement and its other driverless plans:
Testing in 2018, production and sales in 2021, working with Uber
Will produce private cars and fleets
Volvo joins club of opening Mountain View facility

As GM goes ...

GM-owned Cruise Automation grows to 100 employees as it tests cars in California

Business models

Car companies are planning for different possible business models or a combination thereof: Ride sharing/hailing versus private ownership (a/k/a a car or two or three in every driveway). This is explored in a report from the Center for Automotive Research, which mostly explains how shared-use modes work and their value for the customer, particularly where and at what levels of miles traveled.

Thursday, September 29, 2016

Such a Thing as a Free Ride

Pennsylvania lawmakers got free rides - driverless rides - from a an adapted Cadillac that Carnegie Mellon University folks have transformed into a driverless vehicle.

By the way, the quick route included jaywalking pedestrians and traffic signals. The Caddy successfully navigated the busy route for willing members of the General Assembly as well as the mayor of Harrisburg, where the demo took place. Harrisburg is the capital of Pennsylvania and the city was hosting a safety conference this week.

I tried to get a video, but no luck.

I did get a video of a self-driving dump truck that doesn't even pretend to need a driver. There's no cab, no driver's seat, no steering wheel. It looks like a toy.


A bonus

I do not get the science and math, but here is an explanation from PCWorld about Nvidia's upgraded AI self-driving technology.

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Some US Cities Imagining Driverless Future

I'm wishing there was not so much driverless news. It keeps me from other obsessions, like baking bread and watching tiny house shows and videos. Oh and reading. Really, with people visiting soon, I have a ton of bread to bake. Thinking rye, spelt, and whole wheat. And that's before I start another round of cinnamon raisin challahs.

After a few days with transportation geeks, I am dividing the world into the two types of transportation professionals below. Okay, I mean shared use and transit professionals, not any kind of transportation professional.

1. Those who think driverless is coming soon and will be a revolution in transportation.

2. Those who are concentrating on the transportation world as it is and don't believe driverless will be coming for another 10 to 20 years. Basically, they are attempting to be nice by not saying outright that they really think driverless is irrelevant.

Adding places to category #1

Yes, there are the usual suspects of states that want driverless production and testing in their states. But I'm talking about places that are reimagining use of the roadway and what driverless will mean for life in their cities and states.

New York, New York, it's a hell of a town

The Manhattan borough president recently convened a panel to discuss this topic. FYI - The City of New York is divided into five boroughs. Manhattan and Brooklyn are two of them. The panel addressed the different possible scenarios that might unfold with driverless vehicles.

[Side note: Lyrics: New York, New York, it's a hell of a town; the Bronx is up and the Battery's down; the people ride in a hole in the ground ... I tried to find the lyrics online, but all I discovered were videos with the Frank Sinatra, Gene Kelly movie version and what I have below, which is from the current Broadway show that went on site to locales in the city. They show Bethesda Fountain, different parts of Central Park, Nathans in Coney Island, and lots more.]


Chicago is my kind of town - NOT a driverless town

To be fair to the Second City, despite its inferior pizza and its frigid cold winters, the place is good about being in the forefront. Not on driverless, at least not one local politician. A particular alderman wants to ban driverless vehicles and fine any that show up in the Windy City. This puts the local pol against the state government, which wants to encourage driverless investment in the state. [Video is of the Chicago song, with Sinatra singing.]



According to the article about Chicago, Los Angeles is taking a different route and planning for a largely driverless reality in 2035.

No song for Utah

It may be there are songs about Utah, I just don't know them. I could have done Oklahoma.

But Utah has a driverless transit bus at a university. That's Utah State University and the driverless bus has intriguing wireless charging capabilities. I do not know if and when the bus will be tested with actual passengers on a real route. 

Still, I think Chicago might want to reconsider.

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Comments to NHTSA Guidelines Start with Ben Ross

Comment ID NHTSA-2016-0036-0079

This first comment in response to the NHTSA Guidelines (my summary) is submitted by Benjamin Ross. I am guessing this is the same Ben Ross who headed Action Committee for Transit (ACT) for many years. ACT advocates for transit and a supportive street network in Montgomery County, Maryland outside of Washington, DC. Ross writes wonderful pieces, including for Greater, Greater Washington, and he has had a long career advocating for and supporting transit. Here's another sample of Ross' knowledgable writing. 

I don't know any other Ben Ross in transportation, so I think this is a good guess. Full disclosure: I have been and I think I continue to be a member of ACT. 

Not buying safety of partially driverless vehicles

Ross notes the human propensity to ignore speed limits or to use them as a benchmark for speed rather than an actual restriction. In fact, normally law-abiding people violate the law every single day by driving at speeds over posted speed limits. 

Ross points out that partially autonomous vehicles, SAE level 2, such as the Tesla, allow people to keep speeding and ignoring laws that support pedestrian safety (i.e. crosswalk laws), whereas level 3 and above vehicles are programmed to comply with speed limits and laws contributing to pedestrian safety. He believes that a poor incentive is thus established.

The guidance offers car buyers a choice between a Level 3 vehicle that obeys speed limits and yields to pedestrians in unmarked crosswalks, and a Level 2 vehicle that lets them freely ignore these and other laws. Human drivers vary in their compliance with traffic laws. Those drivers who feel least constrained by laws and regulations and least concerned about safety will have a strong incentive to buy a Level 2 vehicle rather than a Level 3 vehicle so that they can continue to speed, drive through crosswalks, etc.
Incentives for speed and distraction

Ross is correct that a driver in a level 2 vehicle is responsible legally as the vehicle operator - and is obligated to monitor the road. In a level 3 vehicle, the driver can hand over operation to the vehicle itself, or actually to the software that allows for hands-free operation.

I'll quote Ross again because of his excellent prose and his insight about where legal responsibility should be placed.

By freeing manufacturers of lower-level vehicles from responsibility for compliance with the laws, the guidance creates a incentive that will promote distracted driving. To eliminate this perverse incentive, manufacturers of Level 2 vehicles should be required to ensure compliance with the laws to the extent their devices are capable. In particular, Level 2 vehicles should be designed to ensure full compliance with speed limits at all times -- something easily accomplished with present-day technology.
I thank Ross for his contribution to the discussion and for explaining that  incentives are an important element in the future of driverless technology.

More on Corporate/Start Up Musical Chairs

When the music stops, who is sitting on whose lap as shakeups and pairings continue in the race for developing and bringing driverless vehicles and services to market? Some pairings are partnerships and others are financial investments.

Quick update

Late players in both the technology and car manufacturing worlds have found each other. Microsoft partnering with Renault-Nissan.

nuTonomy is searching for additional funding. The MIT-based company has found willing partners in the government of Singapore, where the start up has a pilot driverless taxipod program currently in operation, and in a venture capital firm co-founded by Ford Motor Company, as well as other backers.

Bad Pizza by Drone

Dominos is working hard to take out the human delivery person from its delivery service. The pizza company has worked with a robotics company to develop a drone that is currently being tested in a pilot program in Australia. Like Google, Uber, and others doing driverless testing, there is a human accompanying the Dominos drone delivery unit. Concentrating on delivery, there is a Dominos' robotics unit - or DRU. Supposedly, the drone keeps the mediocre (at best) pizza warm. 


Which robotics company is the Dominos partner? Marathon Targets, based in Sydney. The robot can traverse grass or ground as well as sidewalks, but not stairs. Business Insider posted a photo montage that explains the service and shows the logo-labeled Dominos drone.

Cautionary note: As a native New Yorker, I am offended by the very idea and definitely by the taste of Dominos pizza.

Monday, September 26, 2016

Cheat Sheet to the Weeds in the NHTSA Guidelines

President Barack Obama did not go to the New York Times or the Washington Post. He went to the Pittsburgh-Post Gazette with an op-ed to push his support for driverless vehicles
Right now, too many people die on our roads – 35,200 last year alone – with 94 percent of those the result of human error or choice. Automated vehicles have the potential to save tens of thousands of lives each year. And right now, for too many senior citizens and Americans with disabilities, driving isn’t an option. Automated vehicles could change their lives.
Obama is out in front with the new 15-point checklist for manufacturers of driverless vehicles. What am I talking about? The NHTSA guidelines that were issued last week. Though the guidelines are a nudge rather than a limit on state regulation, Obama is very clear where federal authority reaches.
And make no mistake: If a self-driving car isn’t safe, we have the authority to pull it off the road. We won’t hesitate to protect the American public’s safety.
To Obama and NHTSA, the new guidelines are about fostering innovation while protecting safety.

The new guidelines also speak to software and the add/on equipment that could render a conventional vehicle driverless. More on the guidelines in a second.

Critical stuff

You can comment! The request for comment will be open for sixty (60) days, or about 52 days from now. The NHTSA guidance document is NOT mandatory. It's a first pitch, an opening bid, and an invitation to discussion.

Four warnings:

(1) This is a very long post. The devil is in the many details of the NHTSA and though I will mention many, there are lots more.

(2) The guidelines focus on NHTSA’s role as a safety-focused agency. I say the word “safety” with a grain of salt, given that we have continued to tolerate thousands and thousands of injuries and deaths on our nation’s roads for many decades. There are not many industries that the public would give a free pass to when a planeload of people die each week based on predictable design failures.

(3) What the guidelines do not take a position on and indeed effectively remain neutral about – due to NHTSA’s statutory mandate – are the significant issues related to vehicular design and access. I expressly highlight the neglect of the guidelines to address accessible vehicle design and interfaces for people with disabilities, people who speak different languages, and people who have low incomes. Both people who have low incomes and people with disabilities remain second-class citizens in our current auto-centric, inefficient, and expensive transportation system and culture. 

My first aside: We do not, as yet, demand redundant interfaces or that all vehicles be accessible. I'm talking about interfaces that allow for people who are blind and people who are deaf to use driverless vehicles, as well as for people who do not speak English. Wouldn’t it be great if shopping carts, wheelchairs, and strollers could be rolled onto every vehicle? Think of how many backaches would be prevented. Why not have a system like the ADA or like CAFÉ standards where we create an equitable transportation network by requiring equitable vehicles?

(4) I detect a great discomfort on NHTSA's part about vehicles with partially driverless capability, particularly the Tesla approach.

Oh yes

1. NHTSA needs a bigger budget.

2. There are lots of important details here, including reference to a new NHTSA Enforcement Bulletin, effective Sept. 20, 2016 (right now, the bulletin is the top document listed), which has additional important details. I read that as well. Warning: I found the document impossible to find by looking around the NHTSA website and I had to do a search, then guess when I got the results.

3. NHTSA is dividing the driverless world, basically, into two types of vehicles. The first is the partially self-driving vehicle type, such as the Tesla, while the second is the completely driverless variety. In the SAE international standards numerical parlance, that would be level 2 and under, and levels 3-5.

Juicy details are why I read

In the Enforcement Bulletin, on p. 5, there is a neutral-sounding, but (in my opinion) Tesla-focused warning:
Unreasonable risks due to predictable abuse or impractical recalibration requirements may constitute safety-related defects. ... Manufacturers have a continuing obligation to proactively identify and mitigate such safety risks.
In my opinion, the real teeth, the showing off of NHTSA's potential power, resides in the legal brief of the Enforcement Bulletin. In it NHTSA at the very least threatens to use its broad authority to address  safety concerns related to autonomous or partially autonomous vehicles AND their "foreseeable misuse." The bulletin states straight out on p. 15:
[A] semiautonomous driving system that allows a driver to relinquish control of the vehicle while it is in operation but fails to adequately account for reasonably foreseeable situations where a distracted or inattentive driver-occupant must retake control of the vehicle at any point may also be an unreasonable risk to safety.
I'm going to give page numbers and the corresponding bunch of quotes throughout the NHTSA guidelines. This is my cheat sheet to a long and detailed document. Sometimes I comment and sometimes not.

This is our playground 

Quote, p. 9
NHTSA will continue to exercise its available regulatory authority over HAVs using its existing regulatory tools: interpretations, exemptions, notice-and-comment rulemaking, and defects and enforcement authority. NHTSA has the authority to identify safety defects, allowing the Agency to recall vehicles or equipment that pose an unreasonable risk to safety even when there is no applicable Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS). To aid regulated entities and the public in understanding the use of these tools (including the introduction of new HAVs), NHTSA has prepared a new information and guidance document. This document provides instructions, practical guidance, and assistance to entities seeking to employ those tools. Furthermore, NHTSA has streamlined its review process and is committing to issuing simple HAV-related interpretations in 60 days, and ruling on simple HAV-related exemption requests in six months.3 NHTSA will publish the section—which has wider application beyond HAVs—in the Federal Register for public review, comment and use. [Emphasis added.]
Existing model of self-certification

Basically, the FMVSS (Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards) and recall authority apply to all passenger vehicles - human operated and driverless alike.

Quote, p. 13
Under current law, manufacturers bear the responsibility to self-certify that all of the vehicles they manufacture for use on public roadways comply with all applicable Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS). Therefore, if a vehicle is compliant within the existing FMVSS regulatory framework and maintains a conventional vehicle design, there is currently no specific federal legal barrier to an HAV being offered for sale.7 However, manufacturers and other entities designing new automated vehicle systems are subject to NHTSA’s defects, recall and enforcement authority.8 DOT anticipates that manufacturers and other entities planning to test and deploy HAVs will use this Guidance, industry standards and best practices to ensure that their systems will be reasonably safe under real-world conditions.
Oh yeah, and them

Quote, p. 14
In addition to safety, automated vehicles can provide significant, life-altering mobility benefits for persons with disabilities, older persons, and others who may not be considered in conventional design programs. DOT encourages manufacturers and other entities to consider the full array of users and their specific needs during the development process.
Voluntary reporting, NHTSA expectations, and PRA = Paperwork Reduction Act

NHTSA requests voluntary reporting and compliance with the name, title, and signature of an authorized company official and the date. (View p. 17.)

Quote, p. 18
For HAV systems already being tested and deployed, NHTSA expects that manufacturers and other entities will provide a Safety Assessment within four months after the completion of the PRA process, understanding that manufacturers and entities may wish to supplement their submissions over time. Similarly, for vehicles introduced, tested, or deployed either while the PRA process is pending or after the PRA process has been completed, NHTSA would expect manufacturers and other entities to provide a Safety Assessment at least four months before active public road testing begins on a new automated feature.
... new Safety Assessment letter to the Agency when any significant update(s) to a vehicle or HAV system is made. 
Note that the above applies to "material" software changes. I love words like "material" because they automatically give lawyers some work. PRA = Paperwork Reduction Act.

Clue to material or significant

Quote, p. 19
For example, with respect to the ODD [Operational Design Domain], if the capability of the HAV system is changed by a software or hardware update such that its capabilities with respect to speed range, roadway types on which it operates, geographic areas of operation, environmental conditions of operation (weather, day/nighttime), these would all be significant changes to the operational domain of the HAV system and have safety implications that the agency needs to monitor. Therefore, the manufacturer should submit a new Safety Assessment for those capabilities. For HAV OEDR capability, if there is a change to the set of normal driving scenarios (behavioral competencies) or pre-crash scenarios that the HAV system has the capability to address as a result of a software or hardware update, then this should also be summarized in revised Safety Assessment. Similarly, as discussed in section F, manufacturers should have a fall back approach that transitions a vehicle to a minimal risk condition when a problem is encountered with an HAV system. If the fall back strategy and the resulting implementation for achieving a minimum risk condition is changed by a software or hardware change, this change should be addressed in a new or revised Safety Assessment. 
Designed to work? Or not?

NHTSA leaves the issue of attention distraction to manufacturers. View p. 24 about the Human Machine interface.

Then a mixing of apples and oranges. Strange arrangement.

Quote, p. 25 - interaction design and where there is no human driver
In fully automated vehicles, manufacturers and other entities should design their HMI [Human Machine Interface] to accommodate people with disabilities (e.g., through visual, auditory, and haptic displays).25  
In designs where an HAV is intended to operate without a human driver or occupant, the remote dispatcher or central control authority should be able to know the status of the HAV at all times. Examples of these may include automated delivery vehicles, last mile special purpose ground drones, and automated maintenance vehicles.
Instant vehicle capabilities via software

NHTSA allows for the upcoming reality of conventional vehicles and partially self-driving to get software or software updates that render a vehicle more fully or completely driverless.

All vehicles, no matter what, must comply with vehicle safety specifications.

On p. 27, NHTSA addresses compliance with federal, state, and local laws required. No comment on patchwork or stifled innovation.

Discussion of ethical algorithms on p. 28.

Sometimes it works, and then it doesn't - the problem of your laptop is now the problem of your vehicle

On p. 32, NHTSA talks about the need for a fall back, what the vehicle should do if there is a malfunction that prevents driverless operation. This means software that allows for getting to a safe spot and/or alerting driver (if there is one).

The NHTSA guidelines seem to favor completely autonomous vehicles over partially driverless.

Quote, p. 32 
Fall back strategies should take into account that—despite laws and regulations to the contrary—human drivers may be inattentive, under the influence of alcohol or other substances, drowsy, or physically impaired in some other manner.
What testing and who will control it? On p. 33, NHTSA posits a role for Vehicle Testing Organizations with testing left up, essentially, to the manufacturer. NHTSA is not suggesting a mandatory testing regimen.  

Partially driverless = distracted drivers who are unable to immediately pop up to attention

The NHTSA Guidelines demonstrate considerable concern about partially driverless operating systems and "driver complacency" as well as assumptions that drivers understand exact parameters of different levels of automation and when they need to be attentive. 

On p. 34, NHTSA encourages testing for driver complacency.

Quote, p. 34
Manufacturers and other entities should assume that the technical distinction between the levels of automation (e.g., between Level 2 and Level 3) may not be clear to all users or to the general public. And, systems’ expectations of drivers and those drivers’ actual understanding of the critical importance of their “supervisory” role may be materially different 
...
Recognizing the complex human factors issues surrounding SAE Level 2 systems, DOT encourages the automotive industry to work with NHTSA to develop appropriate methods and metrics to understand and quantify effective human factors approaches to address potential risks from complacency and foreseeable misuse of such systems. 
Quote, p. 35 
... manufacturers and other entities should use available means to communicate, monitor, and limit uses of the automated vehicle systems when there is a reasonable expectation (or risk) of systems being used outside of their IODD or of drivers not performing the safety assurance role expected of them.
Nice table and agency wish list

On p. 36, there is a table about the applicability of particular guidelines to HAVs and partially autonomous vehicles. 

On p. 36-38, there is a NHTSA wish list and to-do list, which includes the mandatory submission of a Safety Assessment Letter.

Quote, p. 37
Automated Vehicle Classification: NHTSA will publish an objective method that manufacturers and other entities may use to classify their automated vehicle systems.

The wish list includes coordination with state partners. Translation: Not telling states what to do or taking over. List also covers new FMVSS.

Trying not to step on toes

The Model state policy seeks to avoid inconsistent state laws and also to clarify federal versus state jurisdiction and oversight responsibilities. (View p. 40.) 

Quote, p. 40
These general areas of responsibility should remain largely unchanged for HAVs. DOT and the Federal Government are responsible for regulating motor vehicles and motor vehicle equipment, and States are responsible for regulating the human driver and most other aspects of motor vehicle operation. As motor vehicle equipment increasingly performs “driving” tasks, DOT’s exercise of its authority and responsibility to regulate the safety of such equipment will increasingly encompass tasks similar to “licensing” of the non-human “driver” (e.g., hardware and software performing part or all of the driving task). The Vehicle Safety Act expressly preempts States from issuing any standard that regulates performance if that standard is not identical to an existing FMVSS regulating that same aspect of performance
Yo Congress! Limits of NHTSA authority could use an expansion

Quote, p. 50
It is important to note that the Agency does not prohibit the introduction of new motor vehicles or motor vehicle technologies into the vehicle fleet, provided that those vehicles and technologies meet existing Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS).58 The National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act, NHTSA’s organic statute, creates a selfcertification system of compliance, in which vehicle and equipment manufacturers certify that their products meet applicable standards. NHTSA chooses vehicles and equipment from the fleet to test for compliance, and pursues enforcement actions when the Agency finds either a non-compliance or a defect posing an unreasonable risk to safety. NHTSA does not presently have authority to pre-approve new motor vehicles or new motor vehicle technologies. A vehicle or equipment manufacturer need ask NHTSA about a new technology or vehicle design only when it will not comply with applicable standards, or when there might be a question as to compliance. If a manufacturer anticipates having such a question, then requests for interpretations, exemptions, and rulemakings are the methods that a manufacturer can use to pursue answers from the Agency.
What I see in the section of the NHTSA guidance that will be problematic for technology companies, and perhaps a further spur to working through traditional vehicle manufacturers, is the guidance explaining all of the options for seeking interpretations of laws and regulations, exemptions from the federal motor vehicle safety standards (FMVSS), and changes to or new regulations. 

Agency time versus Manufacturing and experimentation time

Cultures collide in this document. NHTSA gives long, detailed instructions about its procedures, including, for example, requests for letters of interpretation. I am thinking of the scenes in movies of bank clerks in 19th century London or in the Harry Potter movies who review crinkly paper documents with an eye to careful precision rather than speed. But NHTSA is really trying here because for requests for letters of interpretation related to HAVs, so level 3 and above. NHTSA staff will issue an expedited response within 60 or 90 days, depending on the complexity of the request if a “appears to improve safety and follows the foregoing guidelines.”

Pre-FAST Act manufacturers versus post-FAST Act producers

Quote, p. 57
Congress recently amended the Vehicle Safety Act to allow certain vehicle manufacturers (those who, prior to enactment of the FAST Act, had manufactured and distributed FMVSS-compliant vehicles and have registered with NHTSA) to introduce non-FMVSS-compliant motor vehicles into interstate commerce “solely for purposes of testing or evaluation” so long as they “agree[] not to sell or offer for sale the motor vehicle at the conclusion of the testing or evaluation….”68 Manufacturers choosing this latter path should advise NHTSA of this action, but need not petition NHTSA for exemption.
In terms of the testing exemption for NHTSA refers to a possible two-track system for (1) traditional vehicle manufacturers who produced FMVSS-compliant vehicles prior to the FAST Act, and for (2) others. This provision allows any software company that is working with a traditional car manufacturer to essentially glob onto the car manufacturer’s status as a FMVSS-compliant entity and to benefit from the testing exemption:
to introduce non-FMVSS-compliant motor vehicles into interstate commerce “solely for purposes of testing or evaluation” so long as they “agree[] not to sell or offer for sale the motor vehicle at the conclusion of the testing or evaluation” (p. 57, FAST Act, Sec. 24404, to be codified at 49 U.S.C. § 30112(b)(10) (See note 68)).
So for testing by Google, Uber, Varden Labs, Comma.ai, Local Motors, EasyMile and other non-traditional makers or retrofitters of vehicles, is this exemption inapplicable because the companies are operating retrofitted conventional vehicles or their own creations? I guess the exemption is out of reach unless changes to a conventional vehicle that allow for driverless operation are made with the manufacturer’s knowledge and permission, such as in some type of joint venture. Cruise Automation, for example, would be covered because it is owned by GM. But a Local Motors minibus – Hello Olli – would not be eligible to benefit from the exemption. 

But those companies are otherwise classified because they produce so few vehicles. I use the word "produce" loosely because even Google and Uber are basically retrofitting traditional vehicles, as are other companies. I admit that this is an area I am ignorant about, so take my words with a big grain of salt.

Of course, temporary exemptions are available to cover these companies; these companies need only apply, which takes time to produce the paperwork and for an NHTSA response to arrive. (Local Motors and EasyMile, for examples, are different because they are producing their own specialized vehicles.)

Up to p. 69 and still paying attention - and trying to stay awake

NHTSA is, perhaps, engaging in a mea culpa. I have not been a follower of NHTSA, so I’m intrigued, but clueless, about where this is coming from. NHTSA is admitting to prior unwise conduct and publicly resolves to be better in the future. So what is this information buried in an unexciting portion of the NHTSA guidelines? NHTSA acknowledges straight out that it has not been consistent in its responses to petitions for rulemaking, repetitions for rulemaking.

As if to say, new sheriff in town, NHTSA states:
The processes of developing and adopting new rules are time-consuming and can be expensive. These processes involve identifying and gathering reliable data; carefully analyzing it to determine the nature and extent of safety problems; identifying and analyzing alternative solutions; choosing a solution; and developing and validating effective performance requirements and test procedures for the chosen solution. Moving forward, NHTSA seeks to focus its resources on its priority activities, rather than on developing data or performing analysis that could and should have been included in the submitter’s document. (P. 68)
Unwrapping some new tools

This document goes beyond the expected (or what I expected) in terms of addressing procedural matters as well as substantive regulation. NHTSA is addressing the new universe in which it operates. Instead of regulating a 20th Century world of human drivers and manually-operated equipment, a world where new equipment must be installed at some sort of maintenance facility, NHTSA is now moving into the 21st Century, into the current universe, where it must review software updates that can be installed remotely and instantaneously as well as vehicle systems (anti-lock brakes as one example) that operate without human intervention.

As guidance for operating in a universe with immediate software changes that alter the capabilities of a vehicle, NHTSA looks to the FAA because that is (1) another DOT agency (my two cents, not in document), and (2) NHTSA perceives that the FAA has a similar safety-regulatory role and similar technology challenges with such things as autopilot software. As explained in Appendix II, like FAA, NHTSA delegates some of its safety responsibilities to the industry it regulates. Self-certification is a prime example. 

Up for discussion and possible adoption will be:
  • Pre-market safety assessments and assurances,
  • Pre-market approval (example is the aforementioned autopilot software), and
  • Self-certification.

Toy balloons

There’s also a toy balloon floated about adopting a mix of the above approaches. By the way, any pre-market approval system would require new legislation. NHTSA leadership believes that replacing the current self-certification system for one requiring pre-approval would constitute a wholesale change in its operations. It warns in the guidance that a significant increase in NHTSA funding would be necessary to execute a substantially new role of pre-approval of vehicles. There’s a portion of the text devoted to what NHTSA can do with its limited resources. NHTSA is clearly crying out that there will be no free lunch in terms of a greater role in assessing safety.

SNHTSA acknowledges the several years’ long process that occurs when FAA reviews new airliners. (See Appendix II for details.) I can’t imagine either the automotive industry or the software industry accepting such a long and hidebound process. The question is whether consumer watchdog and other types organizations (not to mention the public) will use this opportunity to press for a greater role for NHTSA. Right now, I get the feeling that the public conflates electric, connected, partially self-driving, and completely autonomous vehicles into one pile of laundry that it assumes someone else will put in the washer. (I often have conversations that remind me of how little most people are paying attention to these issues.)

A hybrid process of self-certification and pre-approval is also possible. One idea floated is to continue the current FMVSS self-certification system and add pre-approval for HAV systems. However, NHTSA specifically asks for comments and it is not limiting itself to the specific options mentioned. NHTSA is concerned about keeping up with the pace of vehicle model improvements. I doubt it will go for any system that will present significant delays or squelching of innovation. Also, an addition of any pre-approval system, whether wholesale or restricted to particular technologies, would require statutory change.

Two other ideas that NHTSA puts out there would also require new legislation. These are cease-and-desist authority and broader exemption authority. Again, each of these could be used as part of a new mix of regulatory cocktail to allow NHTSA to regulate safety effectively.

No discussion about authority over certain kinds of software

Quote, p. 79
NHTSA has authority to regulate the safety of software changes provided by manufacturers after a vehicle’s first sale to a consumer. The Agency may need to develop additional regulatory tools and rules to regulate the certification and compliance verification of such post-sale software updates.
NHTSA sees itself as limited as far as having the authority to require particular “driving tests” for HAVs. On what kinds of roads, courses, and under what conditions could this be done? NHTSA has interpreted its legal framework in such a way that it seeks clarification from Congress to allow for nimble testing variations as technology develops. NHTSA needs to be able to act in real time just as the companies it regulates are able to do so. That is so not the usual government structure and systems.

And more on authority NHTSA currently lacks. Quote, p. 80
The Agency’s authority under 49 U.S.C. §§ 30166(e) and (m)(3)(B) could be used to require the reporting described above to the extent that the reporting could be shown to aid in the identification of possible safety-related defects and in ensuring that manufacturers are satisfying their duties with respect to such defects. The Agency may need additional authority to allow it to ensure that manufacturers take all necessary and appropriate steps to verify, validate and debug software.
Bottom line: Encouraging innovation and not squelching it

NHTSA is rightfully concerned that its testing protocols and requirements do not inhibit innovation. NHTSA makes an open invitation for suggestions about how to balance testing and support for technological experimentation (a/k/a risk-taking) in a way that is technology neutral (love that term) or agnostic. NHTSA expresses practical concerns. “Given that many of the changes would involve software and given the speed with which software evolves, these assessments might need to be conducted fairly frequently.”

In this area, NHTSA declares unequivocally that it already has authority to act. “NHTSA may conduct innovation impact analyses, provide for regular reassessments, and establish sunset clauses under existing authority.” (p. 82)
  
Paperwork, paperwork, paperwork – What is necessary? What is basically a overkill?

NHTSA is confident that it is on safe ground in mandating reporting. The questions are at what points, how often, and what must be reported. These questions are implicitly raised, but NHTSA does not offer a global framework. Rather the agency essentially raises issues and seems open to suggestions from those who feel sufficiently impacted (no pun intended) to offer their opinions.  This will be conventional car and vehicle manufacturers, technology companies, groups of these private parties, and some consumer public interest organizations.

The possibilities for data collection are enormous with the existing software and software that will be incorporated into HAVs. NHTSA states that it has authority to impose requirements in this regard. It is also specifically pointing to one technology it is considering requiring being placed into every self-driving vehicle.

Black boxes and crash reporting

Quote, p 82
NHTSA believes enhanced event data recorders would be useful to allow the Agency to reconstruct the circumstances of crashes and to gain an understanding of how a vehicle involved in a crash or incident sensed and responded to its driving environment immediately before and during the crash or near crash. Such data could provide insight to the answers to such crash- reconstruction-related questions as whether there were other roadway users nearby shortly before the crash or incident and whether the vehicle correctly and timely identified the other users and anticipated their speed and trajectories.
But NHTSA does not end there; it also floats the idea of following the lead of California’s reporting requirement for any incident. The practice is already being used and it can be employed as a starting point. Question: Should reporting be limited to crashes, to all crashes, only major crashes, expanded to near crashes?

And then NHTSA throws out another idea.

Quote, p. 83
[T]he Agency could require manufacturers to provide documents (e.g., build sheets) describing the safety equipment and safety-system-related software for crash-involved vehicles upon request. To provide a baseline of vehicles with and without certain safety features or capabilities, the Agency might require such information for all vehicles, not just those involved in crashes.
We need help! - in different many words

NHTSA expresses a practical and substantial concern that it needs technological, cutting-edge expertise and the agency acknowledges implicitly that these experts will not be NHTSA employees. NHTSA likely will never have the funding to pay for sufficient technological expertise and such experts probably want to remain in the private sector. NHTSA proposes, without any specificity, that it should in some way create a group of experts that the agency can consult and thereby benefit from their expertise. My take is that NHTSA wants to have the advantage of expertise that exists and as it evolves without needing to employ many experts.

But NHTSA also expressly recognizes that it must hire some experts, if only to judge what other experts are doing or saying. In this regard, NHTSA is less confident in what it will be able to accomplish. It throws out the idea of hiring, and then posits possibilities if hiring authority proves impossible. Basically, the alternatives in that case are contractors and consultants.

The NHTSA wish list is to hire.  A long quote is worthwhile to demonstrate the ambition of NHTSA in terms of adequately regulating the HAV sector that it believes is emerging.

Beware: Long quote

Quote, p. 84
NHTSA needs to be able to build quickly a cadre of in-house experts in cutting edge areas of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics. Given the newness of HAVs and the private sector demand for persons with the necessary types of scientific expertise to work with those technologies, there is a shortage of suitable candidates to meet the Agency’s critical hiring needs. Particularly if the Agency were to adopt some type of pre-market approval approach, it would need substantial additional numbers of persons qualified to conduct pre-market testing and analysis on a fairly large scale. The Agency could use a number of special hiring tools to enable it to hire qualified applicants with very specialized skills: 1. Direct hiring authority (as DOT currently can use for IT Security Specialists) that allows applicants to be selected directly from the qualified list of candidates without regard to veterans’ preference;2. Term appointments;3. Greater flexibility on pay; and4. Other recruitment, relocation, and retention incentives.
Diamonds in the footnotes

Oh gosh, I am so ready to be finished reading this document, so I am definitely not being sufficiently attentive to analyze each footnote. I am going to point to only a few and I am completely certain that I am failing to mention quite significant ones.

Footnote 25: NHTSA basically says it wishes it could do more to help people with disabilities.
Entities are encouraged to seek technical and engineering advice from members of the disabled community and otherwise engage with that community to develop designs informed by its needs and experiences.
There are lots of footnotes devoted to the bureaucratically-mind-boggling nature of the Paperwork Reduction Act. Those are my words. Obviously, NHTSA is not putting anything that way.

Footnote 49: NHTSA is not seeking agreement or approval by states.
The purpose of NHTSA’s collaboration with States and other stakeholders was to obtain their individual views and input and to exchange facts and information. NHTSA did not seek consensus recommendations from these stakeholders.
Footnote 51: A sharp statement about state versus federal responsibilities.
NHTSA does not expressly regulate motor vehicle (or motor vehicle equipment) performance in-use, after first sale, but because NHTSA’s standards apply to the vehicle or equipment when first manufactured, and because taking a vehicle or piece of equipment out of compliance with an applicable standard can be a violation of the Safety Act, the influence of NHTSA’s FMVSS extends through the life of the vehicle even if NHTSA is not directly regulating it. At the same time, States have the authority to regulate a vehicle’s in-use performance (as through safety inspection laws), but as the text here states, State regulations cannot conflict with applicable FMVSS.
Footnote 55: A seed of figuring out a regulatory system that allows for state-by-state participation. Notice the quotation marks around the word operator. We can define operator such that this is no longer a human.
Typically, a driver’s license from one State in the United States is honored by all other States, so a driver’s license from any State would be valid to allow an “operator” to operate a motor vehicle in any other State.
Footnote 60: Let’s use international cooperation to reduce barriers. 
With respect to international coordination, DOT recognizes that it is important to avoid regulatory inefficiencies and concurrently maximize safety as we collectively strive to facilitate the introduction of HAVs into the marketplace. DOT is actively working to remove potential regulatory barriers for HAVs, both in the U.S. and abroad. DOT is actively involved at the World Forum for the Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations and directly with individual foreign governments. These activities are intended to reduce barriers to innovation while preserving safety. Where appropriate, DOT will intensify its efforts to develop well-designed and globally-consistent regulations for HAVs.
For example, skip to footnote 106 for some elaboration.
Both the U.S. and Canada use self-certification for their vehicle safety standards. Use of the same approach in both countries facilitates U.S.-Canada regulatory cooperation and the operation of the closely integrated U.S.-Canada motor vehicle industry. 
Followed quickly by footnote 107, which contrasts the pre-approval process that the European Union mandates. Footnote 108 notes that while there are benefits to pre-approval, this would necessitate a major shift for the US. One senses NHTSA’s skepticism.

Holding up the rear – Appendices

These are quick descriptions, not complete ones, for each appendix.

Appendix I – Current NHTSA rules for petitions for rulemaking
Appendix II – FAA regulatory tools (being cited as instructive)
Appendix III – Next steps.

Coming up

My highlights from the NHTSA to-do list, post-issuance of these guidelines:

Comment period
More public meeting(s),
Anonymous data sharing, perhaps via a third party aggregator,
Work with industry associations and voluntary groups to address priority safety areas,
Coordination with state governments. A role for AASHTO (American Association of State Highway Transportation Officials)?,
“Automated Vehicle Classification: NHTSA will publish an objective method that manufacturers and other entities may use to classify their automated vehicle systems.”
Collection of data,
Put a rule in force to require a Safety Assessment Letter,
Registration system for HAVs, and
Consider updates to FMVSS.

Cheat sheet - Model State Policy

The quick list relating to the model state policy:
Public comment, stakeholder engagement, technical or other assistance for areas where states may lack expertise, and coordination with Canada and Mexico.

I so deserve to rest my brain right now. Big sigh of relief.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Different Places, Different Driverless Laws Proposed

Yes, I will be writing about the NHTSA guidelines VERY soon. But first I have to finish reading the long, long document and I have a whole job and life outside of my obsession with driverless transportation

The design is at fault

The German transport minister is proposing - for semi-autonomous cars a/k/a Tesla - that manufacturers NOT drivers be liable when the driver fails to pay attention, say texting a grocery list instead of watching the road. The implicit argument goes that this situation is completely foreseeable given the monotonous nature of watching the road when the self-driving/autopilot technology is almost completely reliable. 

The German proposal would also place completely driverless operation of vehicles on equal footing with conventional human driving. Driverless would be allowed; just follow applicable laws and regulations.

Other big news in the last few days was the green light a Michigan House panel gave to the driverless bill. If the Michigan Senate's unanimous approval is any indication, the bill is destined for passage. Go here for highlights of the bill.

Hey, driverless; get over here

I'm imagining the hail of a driverless taxi-transit vehicle in my hometown of Brooklyn. Except wait, an idea being floated is not for what I consider the real Brooklyn, but rather for transformed and gentrified neighborhoods (translation: expensive) along the L train. L service will be suspended for quite a while, starting in 2019, and a Daily News opinion piece suggests an expansive driverless pilot program. So the suggestion is to transform the dreaded L-pocalyse into the L-AutonomousMobilility opportunity.

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Before I Write About NHTSA

Yes, yes, yes, I'm reading the long NHTSA guidelines document. It will take a few days to digest, or at least a day. This is called reading beyond the executive summary. And there is actually other news.

UK insurers are handling driverless stuff behind the scenes and dealing calmly with the driving - or partially self-driving - public by stating that all normal car insurance policies will cover human-operated vehicles and self-driving vehicles. And coverage will extend to whatever insurance usually covers inside and outside of the vehicle.

Lots in England

Oxford-spawned Oxbotica, over in England, is busy designing driverless software and hardware for many types of vehicles. The hardware is lasers and cameras. This is for cars, of course, but also for forklifts, mining trucks, and a NASA Mars rover (I guess the Buy America requirements do not apply).

By a lovely canal

In Amsterdam, you might soon see and be able to ride on a driverless - or should I say captainless - boat. It is called, no joke, Roboat. This is the product of a partnership among MIT, which is a US university, and two Dutch universities. To be ready for testing next year, the Roboat will be able to carry people or packages. Since it is basically a flat raft, a succession of Roboats lined up can operate as a walkway or a bridge.

For fun, meet the Rolls Royce moving fancy TV den 

Without steering wheel and brakes, but with "Eleanor," your personal artificial intelligence assistant, the Rolls Royce driverless concept design is neat, but totally impractical. Bright beige carpeting means you will not be bringing kids, coffee, wine, or pizza. There is a very large screen and a loveseat. Fancy, in a futuristic way.



Monday, September 19, 2016

Can Lyft Exec Comments Do Heavy Lifting?

Lyft is all over news reports with its President's statements that:
2021 - Majority of Lyft rides will be in driverless vehicles
2025 - The end of the age of privately owned and human driven vehicles
But there's more. As if this guy can read my mind, the Lyft President and co-founder John Zimmer is talking about all sorts of driverless vehicles (scroll down in the article). Now I was curious, you know, what with my driverless tiny house fantasy.

The entire rant is available

Here is the entirety of Zimmer's rant. Called The Road Ahead, this is worthwhile reading. In addition to what has been widely reported, Zimmer goes into the Mobility as a Service (MaaS) model (he calls it Transportation as a Service). He also talks about saving money by ditching the car instead of the costly maintenance of such a "ball and chain." Completely on my wavelength. He also thinks we will have a mixed network of regular and driverless vehicles, with the tipping point to driverless at around 2025, much sooner than conventional predictions. Again, I'm with Zimmer on this. 

Zimmer goes into his expected trajectory of the shift to driverless. Cute charts. He espouses the complete New Urbanist dream of the car-free life. He basically does not see anywhere beyond the borders of the five boroughs, San Fransisco, Boston, Portland, and, you get it, the other obvious suspects.

Open questions

Hello - but plenty of people live in the suburbs, in car-dependent small cities, and in, yes, rural areas. Not a peep about those. One question is whether this driverless MaaS will take hold in those places. I say yes for small cities and some suburbs, but probably not profitable for rural areas and exurbs. 

Another question is whether there is enough cash to keep Lyft in business until 2025. Certainly its partnership with GM helped - to the tune of $500 million. But recent reports ponder Lyft's ability to hang on and its attempts to be acquired. Jury is definitely out on that. Perhaps the rant is related.