Warning: Analogies Concerning AV Future

After a brief stop at low-speed shuttles, which are popping up everywhere, a few listed below, and likely more to come with the USDOT AV grants, I shift gears, so to speak, and go off on a tangent. I make an analogy, actually several, that will take time to be revealed as apt or poor.

Like raking leaves under a huge maple tree

Just from this week's newsfeed, showing that I hardly have to scroll down to find announcements related to AV shuttles:

Jacksonville, FL, plans AV network in its downtown and incorporating its Skyway
Denver about to launch AV shuttle by transit and business center.
Tokyo airport testing AV buses in preparation to serve travelers and to meet goal of providing AV transportation during the 2020 Olympics.
Manchester Airport (UK) to test AV airport shuttle that will hold four-six travelers and expected to be called Pods on Demand.
Michigan VA medical center to get AV shuttle to transport veterans and others around campus.

How bikesharing changed biking - at least in DC

Before bikeshare arrived in the Washington, DC area, the speed of biking was high - scary for pedestrians - and bikers routinely violated traffic rules. Both downtown and on the edges of DC, into Maryland, this changed when bikeshare arrived. Almost overnight, the heavy, clunky, bikeshare bikes, ridden often by people in business clothes (who did not want to get dirty or wet en route) significantly slowed the speed of biking generally and had a similar calming affect that reduced traffic-rule-violating behavior.

In those years between DC bikeshare's start and when Citibike appeared in NYC, I would be shocked when I returned to the city to see that the bike culture there was as unruly, as Wild West, as biking had been in DC prior to bikeshare. Friends and relations were afraid of those speedy bikers because they would appear out of nowhere and skirt extremely close to pedestrians. It feels like there has been a change in NYC since Citibike, but, due to the massive changes in pedestrian and bike infrastructure in the city, it is less possible to attribute any shifts there to bikesharing.

Actual topic of post - analogy warning - Will AV shuttles be like bikeshare? 

Here is where I veer off into an analogy, which is dangerous territory because my analogies do not always work for other people. Apparently some, maybe most, brains work differently from mine.

AVs are being promoted in large part due to safety. AV technology will mean robotic/machine operation according to the rules of the road. No speeding, no stop sign running, no drunk or otherwise intoxicated driving, etc. will save lives and prevent crashes and near misses. Those near misses cause anxiety at the very least. 

Off topic for a second - Hint: If we add safer road design and road design that promotes safe walking, biking, and scooter - or whatever - use, we can improve both safety and public health. Sitting in a vehicle as the only transportation option is not healthy.

If we have, I am presuming, slower-moving AVs, even as 10 percent of traffic at first, whether these are shared-use ridehailing, transit, or whatever, is it unreasonable that AVs will have a calming - law-and-order - effect on the rest of traffic, the human-driven vehicles?

Jury still out

With the AV story du jour being human attacks on robots, drones, and AVs, it is possible that AVs will not calm down any drivers. I suspect that is wrong, just as I suspect that most people will not be getting drunk all the time in AVs or having sex constantly in them. Mostly we will play mindless video games or watch poor-quality entertainment (at least from the perspective of someone whose junk TV and movie watching tends to romantic comedies or Masterpiece Theatre-type fare. Can't wait to get into the current season of Schitt's Creek.)

It is possible that if AVs are relatively slow, but traffic proceeds more smoothly, that the human drivers will become accustomed to them and slow down around them.

Warning: another analogy. After all, in my area of work and residence, drivers have become accustomed in the last 10 years to bikers sharing the road. I still hear complaints, but they are fewer, and, even with the complaints, those drivers have adjusted.

Again off-topic: Even as habits are changing, not everyone is a convert. I must admit that I gave a friend a lecture recently when he complained about his local bike lanes and traffic-calming infrastructure. Incredible how many people do not consider that speeding is unsafe and contributes greatly to very bad outcomes. This friend would not intentionally hurt a fly, but he thinks nothing of speeding and violating other traffic laws. This was not the first driving-related lecture. 

The proof will be in the pudding. We can study, we can speculate, but we will not know for a long time. I am hopeful. I'll go completely out on a limb on other unrelated topics. Not many foresaw the changes that smartphone have brought. Add to that the Amazon business model. Who in 1965 would predict the sharp reductions in smoking with education in schools and public service ads? Behavior change is possible.

Where I would differ from many - as I go way more off-topic - is that we cannot expect change to happen just because it has happened elsewhere or that it will happen because it makes sense. We can't just say something is bad, for example, operating one's own car every single day; citing public health and safety statistics whatever they might be to dissuade people. No, we have to show that something else is good, available, even fun. Look at how Uber attracted rides. I have lots to say about Uber, but people did not have to be convinced to use it. It gives them a viable, reliable option. Let's do that with AVs. 

That's it. I'm ranting here. Hope it's been food for thought and that the analogies were not awful.

Popping Up Like Weeds from the Sidewalk

[Image from Cision PR Newswire.]

Gov. Hickenlooper of Colorado declared Monday, Dec. 4th to be Connected and Autonomous Vehicle (AV) Day. No word on store sales for that holiday. Part of Hickenlooper's C-and-AV Day photo op was to showcase Colorado's upcoming AV pilot project.

The declaration of the special day was a way for the pro-AV governor - whose administration paved the way for the driverless truck beer delivery PR stunt - to continue to highlight AV partners and Colorado's enthusiasm.

According to the press release, in very press-release-y language:

"Panasonic, a global leader in smart cities and smart automotive technology solutions, welcomed Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, Denver offices, where he proclaimed December 4 as "Connected and Autonomous Vehicle Day" to reinforce initiatives like Panasonic's connected vehicle partnership with CDOT's RoadX Program, as well as acknowledge EasyMile, a leader in autonomous technology, for their North American headquarters grand opening co-located within the Panasonic building."

Best of luck to Lauren Isaac of EasyMile as she awaits the birth of her baby. By the time that baby is a teenager, he or she will never need a driver's license. My own kids told me about six years ago that their generation would be the last for that.

Other EasyMile news is that the company is graduating, or rather expanding, from cute AV shuttles to real buses, AVs, of course. EasyMile is partnering with the French government and "IVECO, Sector, Transpolis, ISAE-SUPAERO, Ifsttar, Inria, and Michelin" to produce the AV buses. The buses will be large enough to transport 100+ passengers. (A warning to all of you traveling with more than one small child: Whether or not a bus has a driver, get on at a stop where you can sit together and where you do not have to stand holding a child of 30 pounds or one wearing a snow suit. AVs will not solve every transportation conundrum.)

Watch this nice video of the EasyMile AV shuttle at Bishop Ranch office park in California, being piloted in a partnership with the Contra Costa Transportation Authority.

In the state where everyone believes every visitor wants to move there

Look at the cute Colorado license plate for the EasyMile AV shuttle. It will be spring 2018 before regular passengers can get on board to ride the first-mile/last-mile route near Denver's 61st and Peña Station. Political and business partners came out to shine anyway for the early dog and pony show on Monday.

Perfect would be taking that shuttle from the commuter bus stop near Louisville, CO (near Boulder) to the Moxie Bread Company hipster bakery and coffee place. It's a Denver transit bus, so why not?

[Off topic: Moxie bialys are nowhere near the real thing, but their whole grain, naturally-leavened bread is excellent. In the bialy/bagel realm, I remain true to my pre-hipster Brooklyn roots.]

Pilots popping up everywhere

Nissan will be starting a pilot in Japan for app-based AV ridehailing. Will start with only two Nissan Leaf electric vehicles. The pilot will begin in March 2018.

Lyft riders in Boston's Seaport neighborhood may be experiencing AV ridehailing trips due to a pilot program and a partnership between Lyft and nuTonomy.  Delphi owns nuTonomy, which has experience in Singapore with AV pilots.

Previous posts about nuTonomy activity in Singapore: AV ridehailing in 2018; Singapore is a driverless sandbox; plus more posts about AV activity in Singapore.

Will vans be cool again?

The company first known for its cool vans is trying to climb back to regain that reputation. Volkswagon has developed an AV van called MOIA that will be launched as the vehicle for a ridehailing service. "The van-pooling MOIA service will launch in Hamburg in 2018 with 200 vans, letting passengers enter a departure point and destination in an app. "We've set ourselves the goal of taking more than a million cars off the roads in Europe and the USA by 2025," said MOIA CEO Ole Harms."

[Image from Endgadet.]

FYI: No flower power on these sleek, corporate-looking VW vans.

Fiskers has also developed an AV shuttle called Orbit and its shape varies from the cute boxy design of other companies. No word on when this van-like shuttle vehicle will appear on roads or where it will launch.

School bus without driver

[Image from Teague.]

So, I hope parents are aware that school bus drivers do not actually supervise children who ride the bus. I mostly walked my kids to school up to high school, but I overheard plenty of kid conversations about school bus rides.

The AV school bus design, named Hannah,  crafted by the Teague design firm is cute. The affluent-and-white world portrayed in the photographs suggests a crime-free, suburban paradise. In the real world, perhaps parent volunteers would be needed up to high school, especially in the prime cliquey years of fourth grade through middle school.

Ooh La La Taxis, Shuttles, and Hyperloop

Navya will be starting an autonomous vehicle taxi service next spring, that's the second quarter of 2018. So, flowers, buds on trees, and a taxi sans driver - but only in Paris - so far. Also nice is that the taxi will be EV as well as AV (electric vehicle, autonomous vehicle for you non-acronym lovers). For now, Navya merely offers a boring, corporate-styled video.

Okay, yes, I can't resist the temptation to include the boring video.

More taxi-like news

We have advanced beyond "what's good for GM is good for America" to the point where GM is going after the business of people completely car-free or at least car-lite with its Maven ridehailing service. Maven is now expanding to more cities, operating in Baltimore, DC, Boston, and Los Angeles, among others, bringing the total to eight.

GM's Maven is not yet autonomous, but it represents GM's foray into a different business model in preparation for an AV world that may not mirror the old model of a car - or two or three - in every driveway.

Off topic: Where maven comes from

Maven, by the way, is from Yiddish and means expert. In Yiddish, the word maven often carries a negative connotation, as in "What are you, a maven?" My parents always talked about the men who gossiped on the street corner in this way - people who talked, thought they were experts, but did not contribute.

However, the word has taken on a more sunny, positive disposition in American English.

2018 in Tennessee

Knoxville, TN, may soon see an AV shuttle from Local Motors. Yes, Olli will be manufactured in Knox County and an Olli AV shuttle, to be 90 percent 3D printed, will likely begin ferrying Knoxville passengers in 2019 - which is like seven years from now in AV time. (My family in materials science generally poo poo's the 3D printing thing, but Local Motors seems to be making this work, or, at least, is persistent in pursuing it.)

Hyperloop actually progressing - and being built

Despite my skepticism, two distinct and quite separate hyperloop projects have official approval to begin building - with private dollars. The first will go from Baltimore to DC and the second will be in suburban metro Denver and into the city.

What is hyperloop? In case you do not follow this stuff, wikipedia has a good page that explains pretty much everything.

Watch out MARC train, there will be a much faster way to go from Baltimore to DC - or to Baltimore for a fantastic Italian sub at Isabella's. (I say that as a native New Yorker.) Virgin Hyperloop One, an Elon Musk/Richard Branson company (renamed from Hyperloop One with the Branson investment) could be bringing Musk's vision of hyperloop pods traveling all the way from DC to NYC in less than 30 minutes. Maryland's governor has given approval to a chunk of the Baltimore to DC segment. (I hope there will be a stop at BWI Airport.)

"Hogan [Maryland's governor] administration officials said [in mid-October] the state has issued a conditional utility permit to let Musk’s tunneling firm, The Boring Co., dig a 10.3-mile tunnel beneath the state-owned portion of the Baltimore-Washington Parkway, between the Baltimore city line and Maryland 175 in Hanover. ... More than two-thirds of the 35-mile Baltimore Washington Parkway is owned by the federal government, which as of Thursday had not publicly granted permission for the hyperloop system."

The Colorado project will be built by Arrivo, which is headed by a former Elon Musk employee at SpaceX and a co-founder of Hyperloop One. This will be "a public-private partnership with Colorado’s Department of Transportation and E-470 Public Highway Authority." I can tell you personally that there is both excitement and concern about hyperloop in the growing suburbs around Denver. The Arrivo hyperloop version goes slower than the Musk version, at about 160 mph instead of at several hundred miles per hour, which has not yet been achieved.

Transit Pulling Ahead

Reading the news on autonomous vehicles (AVs), everyday I am seeing more shared-use, transit, and transit-like AVs. These pilot programs are spreading quickly. Slow, fixed-route - or limited radius - AV shuttles have captured the imagination of places in the United States that are (1) NOT our major cities, meaning places without strong transit unions, and (2) NOT transit rich. Indeed, in at least one spot, AV shuttles will used to ferry people to and from parking lots.

Most of the AV shuttles are manufactured by Navya and EasyMile, though there are other companies in the game and some homegrown, usually university-developed, shuttle vehicles.

Down under, over to Far East, and towards the West

Perth, Australia has an AV transit shuttle service - open to the public - that just turned one year old. The Navya shuttle, called Arma, operates on public roads. The shuttle reads signs and turns right. Unlike human drivers, it regularly improves due to software upgrades. [See photo.]

Singapore will have AV ridehailing in mid-2018 via a partnership with nuTonomy. Unknown is whether a local ride hailing company will be involved. This city-state is already ahead of the curve on AV testing and is currently well in the lead in terms of AV-related urban planning. (Lots more on that topic in a blog post soon.)

Helsinki, Finland has an AV shuttle as a regular service - NOT a pilot project. Finland's pilots have used the EasyMile EZ10 for AV service and that tradition continues with the Helsinki shuttle.

Tallinn, Estonia recently saw the end of a month-long AV transit shuttle pilot that was open to the public. This project also used EasyMile vehicles. There are already plans to bring the AV transit option back to Estonia, but next time to a different city and not until next summer. A leading Estonian transportation official is pushing for Estonia to move forward with AVs generally.

Go west young shuttle

Michigan: Ann Arbor, home of Big Ten school University of Michigan (UM) and the MCity AV testing facility (and not far from the American Center for Mobility testing facility in Ypsilanti, Michagan) is about to host an AV shuttle on a two-mile route between engineering buildings at UM's North Campus. The shuttle vehicles are manufactured by Navya and they carry up to 15 passengers. Rides will be fare free and the AV shuttle will operate during the university's business hours (not intended for late-night studying or as a drunk bus).

Texas 

Texas A&M has a homegrown AV shuttle on campus for Howdy Week. The plan is to have 15 of these shuttles in operation by the end of the spring semester, meaning by May.

Arlington, Texas  has a pilot AV shuttle program that began on Aug. 26 and will continue through mid-2018. The shuttle will provide AV transportation around the Arlington entertainment district and to Texas Rangers and Dallas Cowboys games on game days and when concerts and other events are held. EasyMile shuttle vehicles will be used. Arlington is already considering expanding the use of AV transit shuttles beyond the pilot project. The vehicles hold 12 passengers, according to one enthusiastic report.

California

San Jose Airport is testing an EasyMile shuttle vehicle and hopes to use it for ferrying travelers and workers around the airport. The wish list includes an AV shuttle to transit and a dedicated lane on public roads. A local article about the project does a nice job of explaining the huge quality-of-life implications for people with disabilities and older adults.

San Ramon, CA, home of the Bishop Ranch office campus has an AV shuttle pilot program that is designed for ferrying office workers.  The AV shuttle became a local celebrity when it was featured as the grand marshal of the Concord, CA, July 4th parade. EasyMile shuttle vehicles are being used.

Apple is floating the idea of an AV shuttle for employees. No word on timing or which company will be supplying the shuttles.

Colorado: Denver's transit system is planning for cute AV shuttles for first and last mile connection to transit. RTD, the transit agency, was testing the EasyMile EZ10 in a giant parking lot. If you watch the video, just note that the snarky New Yorker reaction is that unless this vehicle has a dedicated lane or a built-in "oh no you don't" feature, in a busy city pedestrians will eating this adorable vehicle for lunch. You cannot combine a courteous, safe vehicle with a nasty, walking Brooklynite.

MaaS on the menu - tea leaf of expected profitable service

None other than Ernst & Young (really called EY), a large multinational accounting firm, has developed a Blockchain platform, called Tesseract, for managing fleets of AVs. The firm sees mobility as a service - or MaaS - somewhere on the expected horizon. From what I understand, which is little, about Blockchain, also used for bitcoin transactions, it is nearly unhackable and it is instantaneous. Evidently, EY sees money in this and has confidence that MaaS will emerge with sharing of different types of AVs, and differently-owned vehicles.

People with disabilities: AV transportation equity

Australia, like the US, a country of long distances, has a company about to pilot AV pods for older adults. Called Pod Zero, and manufactured by UK-based company RDM Autonomous, the pilot will only offer transportation on local roads within some elder communities owned by IRT, an Australian company. (For you older New Yorkers or subway history buffs, this company appears to have no relation to IRT train lines, such as the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.) According to RDM, Pod Zero "is currently built in two variants – four-seater and eight-seater – and offers an operating speed up to 15 mph, multiple battery options up to eight hours or 50 miles, wheelchair accessibility and air conditioning."

Pod Zero will launch in November at an aging and information technology conference.

Autonomous wheelchairs are being tested and plans so far are for use in hospitals and airports. Though this wheelchair comes out of MIT research, the pilots are in Singapore and Japan.

Fare free for a price

Under the category "you get what you pay for," ideas for how businesses will make money off of AV transportation are growing. One idea floating around is that AV service, perhaps shared-use ridehailining trips, will be free - actually "sponsored" - by a local business, maybe a restaurant that wants your patronage. Other ideas revolve around fare free because transportation will be a cheap perk to deliver in exchange for valuable data. Sorry, forgot to get a link for this.

OMG, can't believe someone just said this - try being in a wheelchair for a few days

Below is a quote from a Mother Jones post that shows how people totally do not get the need for accessibility. It's as if the writer and like-minded individuals assume that all people with disabilities have extra cash to pay for personal service and that they don't deserve transportation equity. I agree with the point of the post, to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good, BUT people with mobility challenges - by they mothers with strollers or grandfathers with wheelchairs or cousins with intellectual disabilities, should not have to continue to be second-class transportation citizens. (I include the mother because so many parents develop back problems during the car-seat years. Why can't we have cars in which you can just roll in a stroller?)

No, we don’t need to deal with the problem of seniors and disabled passengers before it becomes an issue. Why would we? The market will almost certainly take care of this. Maybe companies will spring up that maintain human drivers, or that offer to have a human accompany the car to help you load your luggage or get your wheelchair into the trunk. Maybe driverless taxi companies will include this as an option. Or something. This is a no-brainer. [Emphasis added.]

So if you are an affluent person with a disability, no worries. But if you can't afford to pay twice as much for transportation or if you do not want to permanently be stuck at home, sorry. OMG, bad attitude. Maybe it's time to expand the Americans with Disabilities Act to comprehensively include all for-hire and private vehicle transportation. This just gets too hard for anyone marginalized just because he or she uses a wheelchair.

Deep Dive into Colorado AV Law

The preamble to the Colorado law, Senate bill 17-213, gets straight to the heart of the disadvantages of human driving - too many roadway deaths and two million crashes a year across the US - as well as the expected advantages of autonomous vehicles (AV) - cost-efficient transportation, increased independence for youth, older adults, and people with disabilities, and Colorado's position as a tech leading state. I don't know if the last one is true, but that kind of statement is pretty standard either as an introduction to legislation or spoken out loud by politicians.

Totally driverless

The Colorado law specifically does not govern partially-autonomous vehicles, SAE levels 1-3, and states that these vehicles are already lawful to operate in the state. The law only addresses completely autonomous vehicles.

Colorado bans local governments within its borders, such as cities, towns, and counties, from regulating autonomous transportation at all, but the language is interesting. The pre-emption is for provisions that "set[] standards for an automated driving system that are different from the standards set for a human driver." The goal is to permit transportation unimpeded by jurisdictional lines. (That's a big weakness of transit and many taxi laws.) There's also an awareness demonstrated that we still live in a human-driver world, something I sometimes forget as I daily read about autonomous vehicles.

Warning: Because the Colorado statute is in all caps, as though the legislature feels it must scream out that a bill has passed, there will be a quote in all-caps-scream-mode coming up.

Of course

AVs must comply with state and federal laws.

Annual state department of transportation (CDOT) report to the legislature about AV testing.

Liability for crashes or other incidents will be determined according to state and federal law or common law. Doesn't this go without mention? In law school, I learned the basic lesson that unless a law states or strongly implies a change, current rules remain unaltered.

Government 101 - Proper design necessary to achieve interagency coordination

IF AN AUTOMATED DRIVING SYSTEM IS NOT CAPABLE OF COMPLYING WITH EVERY STATE AND FEDERAL LAW THAT APPLIES TO THE FUNCTION THE SYSTEM IS OPERATING, A PERSON SHALL NOT TEST THE SYSTEM UNLESS APPROVED BY THE COLORADO STATE PATROL AND THE COLORADO DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION, IN ACCORDANCE WITH A PROCESS OVERSEEN BY THE COLORADO STATE PATROL AND THE COLORADO DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION. 

1. Requiring coordination, but not creating an incentive or enforcement to ensure it will be implemented does not always work when more than one government agency is involved. Perhaps Coloradans are more willing to collaborate than others.

2. It is merely a traffic infraction to violate this dual-agency-approval requirement, according to the next subsection of the law.

Now on to the next state. Actually, with the package of bills before Congress, these state laws and bills are likely just fun pieces for pondering

Legislation Bonanza: Out to Colorado

SB 17-213, as amended, is the Colorado bill. Even in beautiful Colorado, where everyone is fit and either biking in spandex or skiing, there is a state legislature. Okay, some people are hiking there. (I actually like Moxie Bread Company, a nice little whole grain bakery with great coffee in Louisville, outside of Boulder.)

The Colorado legislation opens with (1) a summary of the carnage on the nation's roads - and Colorado roads, specifically - due to deaths and injuries caused by vehicular crashes; and (2) the usefulness of driverless vehicles for first-mile/last-mile connections to transit and the mobility of people with disabilities and older adults. Amazing is that this introduction also mentions pedestrians and people who are poor. Go Colorado! Thinking multi-modal and socioeconomically.

Short bill, broad coverage

In a few pages, and those pages have a large font, the bill places its trust in a driverless future. Forget a focus on testing, the Colorado legislation would:

* Preempt local governments from regulating driverless vehicles. 
* Authorize operation of driverless vehicles as long as vehicles comply with state and federal laws.  
* Allow for testing of vehicles that are not in compliance with state and federal laws, with permission from the Colorado State Patrol and the DOT (Department of Transportation).
* And for the we-must-make paperwork department: The state DOT is required to submit a report each September about driverless testing in Colorado.

Colorado wisely leaves questions of liability, in the case of malfunction or crash, with existing judicial precedent, laws, and regulations. A new legal judicial structure for a new technology is not being established. Those physically fit (I'm assuming) state legislators read my mind.

AV eye candy from London

A glimpse into the future Colorado sees is already beginning to materialize in a very different landscape. See what the public transport agency in London will be trying out.

Click here for the video source.