Warning: Analogies Concerning AV Future

After a brief stop at low-speed shuttles, which are popping up everywhere, a few listed below, and likely more to come with the USDOT AV grants, I shift gears, so to speak, and go off on a tangent. I make an analogy, actually several, that will take time to be revealed as apt or poor.

Like raking leaves under a huge maple tree

Just from this week's newsfeed, showing that I hardly have to scroll down to find announcements related to AV shuttles:

Jacksonville, FL, plans AV network in its downtown and incorporating its Skyway
Denver about to launch AV shuttle by transit and business center.
Tokyo airport testing AV buses in preparation to serve travelers and to meet goal of providing AV transportation during the 2020 Olympics.
Manchester Airport (UK) to test AV airport shuttle that will hold four-six travelers and expected to be called Pods on Demand.
Michigan VA medical center to get AV shuttle to transport veterans and others around campus.

How bikesharing changed biking - at least in DC

Before bikeshare arrived in the Washington, DC area, the speed of biking was high - scary for pedestrians - and bikers routinely violated traffic rules. Both downtown and on the edges of DC, into Maryland, this changed when bikeshare arrived. Almost overnight, the heavy, clunky, bikeshare bikes, ridden often by people in business clothes (who did not want to get dirty or wet en route) significantly slowed the speed of biking generally and had a similar calming affect that reduced traffic-rule-violating behavior.

In those years between DC bikeshare's start and when Citibike appeared in NYC, I would be shocked when I returned to the city to see that the bike culture there was as unruly, as Wild West, as biking had been in DC prior to bikeshare. Friends and relations were afraid of those speedy bikers because they would appear out of nowhere and skirt extremely close to pedestrians. It feels like there has been a change in NYC since Citibike, but, due to the massive changes in pedestrian and bike infrastructure in the city, it is less possible to attribute any shifts there to bikesharing.

Actual topic of post - analogy warning - Will AV shuttles be like bikeshare? 

Here is where I veer off into an analogy, which is dangerous territory because my analogies do not always work for other people. Apparently some, maybe most, brains work differently from mine.

AVs are being promoted in large part due to safety. AV technology will mean robotic/machine operation according to the rules of the road. No speeding, no stop sign running, no drunk or otherwise intoxicated driving, etc. will save lives and prevent crashes and near misses. Those near misses cause anxiety at the very least. 

Off topic for a second - Hint: If we add safer road design and road design that promotes safe walking, biking, and scooter - or whatever - use, we can improve both safety and public health. Sitting in a vehicle as the only transportation option is not healthy.

If we have, I am presuming, slower-moving AVs, even as 10 percent of traffic at first, whether these are shared-use ridehailing, transit, or whatever, is it unreasonable that AVs will have a calming - law-and-order - effect on the rest of traffic, the human-driven vehicles?

Jury still out

With the AV story du jour being human attacks on robots, drones, and AVs, it is possible that AVs will not calm down any drivers. I suspect that is wrong, just as I suspect that most people will not be getting drunk all the time in AVs or having sex constantly in them. Mostly we will play mindless video games or watch poor-quality entertainment (at least from the perspective of someone whose junk TV and movie watching tends to romantic comedies or Masterpiece Theatre-type fare. Can't wait to get into the current season of Schitt's Creek.)

It is possible that if AVs are relatively slow, but traffic proceeds more smoothly, that the human drivers will become accustomed to them and slow down around them.

Warning: another analogy. After all, in my area of work and residence, drivers have become accustomed in the last 10 years to bikers sharing the road. I still hear complaints, but they are fewer, and, even with the complaints, those drivers have adjusted.

Again off-topic: Even as habits are changing, not everyone is a convert. I must admit that I gave a friend a lecture recently when he complained about his local bike lanes and traffic-calming infrastructure. Incredible how many people do not consider that speeding is unsafe and contributes greatly to very bad outcomes. This friend would not intentionally hurt a fly, but he thinks nothing of speeding and violating other traffic laws. This was not the first driving-related lecture. 

The proof will be in the pudding. We can study, we can speculate, but we will not know for a long time. I am hopeful. I'll go completely out on a limb on other unrelated topics. Not many foresaw the changes that smartphone have brought. Add to that the Amazon business model. Who in 1965 would predict the sharp reductions in smoking with education in schools and public service ads? Behavior change is possible.

Where I would differ from many - as I go way more off-topic - is that we cannot expect change to happen just because it has happened elsewhere or that it will happen because it makes sense. We can't just say something is bad, for example, operating one's own car every single day; citing public health and safety statistics whatever they might be to dissuade people. No, we have to show that something else is good, available, even fun. Look at how Uber attracted rides. I have lots to say about Uber, but people did not have to be convinced to use it. It gives them a viable, reliable option. Let's do that with AVs. 

That's it. I'm ranting here. Hope it's been food for thought and that the analogies were not awful.