Will AVs Bring Transit Popularity?

Two articles that popped up on my Google alerts this week point to a possible - though still unlikely - scenario of transcendent transit systems and a waning auto dealership distribution model - both due to fully automated vehiches (AVs) and the ways they will be available, particularly in cities and traditional suburbs (not exurbs).

Auto dealers have not said much or done much in response to AV developments thus far. Even as every prediction says that most AV passenger transportation will be fleet based and publicly available, whether through transit or private companies or public-private partnerships, auto dealers have remained silent. After all, it is still a profitable business in most places in the US to sell cars, even in most cities.

Change drastically or get out

Now an executive at a firm that does financial advising for car dealers, and which itself invests in dealerships, is ringing the alarm for dealerships and holding up the scary prospects of Kodak and Blockbuster as examples of companies that had their heads in the sand as technological developments began bubbling up around them.

The opinion piece insists that in the next 20 years, dealerships will either go out of business (so better to sell out soon) or undergo massive consolidation, down to a few huge dealership companies.

Singapore planning for drastic change

Singapore is possibly the city (okay city/state) most prepared for AVs. It has been investing in AVs and allowing testing for years. Now Singapore is turning to the AV shuttle with an EasyMile AV that will serve a university. This will be a pilot that begins in March 2019.

With its good weather, Singapore is well placed to take early advantage of AVs.

Waymo to launch real no-driver service and expand to more cities

Yes, it's all over the news, almost old news, from last week that Waymo will slowly begin and then incrementally expand its AV service, but without backup drivers in every vehicle. I'm about to head to the airport, so I am excusing myself from providing one of any 50 easy-to-find sources for this news.

Still no word from Waymo on working with transit or providing accessible vehicles. Since I like the company, that is quite disappointing.

So the title question - will AVs bring transit popularity?

The answer may be publicly available transportation will become popular, but transit itself becoming popular in the places where it barely hits the edge of the spectrum on mode share is doubtful. Transit quality means investment, which means funding in the form of public dollars, which has grown, but, in the US, still remains the exception rather than the rule.